A $12 Billion Investment for a $7 Billion Economy: Inside the Ras Malé Deal with Eagle Hills

The Maldivian government signed a framework agreement worth USD 12 billion with Eagle Hills — one of the most prominent companies in the UAE — on 21 September, to carry out a historic project in Ras Malé. To grasp the scale of the deal, the report notes that the largest direct foreign investment in Sri Lanka's history is a USD 3.85 billion oil refinery — secured by an economy about 14 times larger than the Maldives'. The Maldives' total GDP last year stood at USD 7.74 billion, meaning the value of this single project is larger than the country's entire annual economic output. According to the figures cited, the Maldives normally receives around USD 800 million a year in foreign direct investment (FDI), with the highest pre-Covid year reaching USD 961 million. The USD 12 billion flowing into the Maldives from this project is therefore equal to all the foreign investment the country would receive across every industry combined over 15 years. COMPARING WITH NEIGHBOURING COUNTRIES The report argues the deal should not be weighed on the size of the sum alone, but against what comparable — or far larger — countries have secured. Sri Lanka's biggest investment to date is a USD 3.85 billion oil refinery. Port City Colombo, regarded as a national pride project, drew roughly USD 1.4 billion from China Harbour. The Ras Malé project is three times larger than Sri Lanka's record and eight times larger than Port City, the report states — an investment landing in a USD 7.7 billion economy, compared with Sri Lanka's USD 108 billion economy. Measured against GDP, Sri Lanka's largest investment equals about 3.5 percent of its economy. The investment headed to the Maldives exceeds 150 percent of national output — a difference the report describes as one that will shape the future of generations to come. NO SPENDING FROM THE STATE BUDGET According to details now made public, the Maldivian state takes on no debt to carry out the project. The government provides no guarantee for another party's financial commitment. No loan has been taken. Nor has any tax concession or duty exemption — commonly offered to attract foreign investment — been granted. However, the report says the government's involvement must be viewed from two sides. The land reclamation work is being carried out at the expense of Maldivian citizens. What the government is not doing is directly spending money on the city to be built on that land; the twelve billion dollars is being spent on developing that city. For a country whose state debt stands at around 130 percent of GDP, recognising that distinction is described as crucial. "This is not a burden on future generations to build this city," the report states. CREATING VALUE FROM RECLAIMED LAND The Ras Malé land handed to HDC was valued at MVR 3.8 billion for 1,009 hectares — roughly MVR 35 per square foot. That reflects the base value of a sandbank with no infrastructure whatsoever. Now, a world-famous developer has committed to a major investment expected to raise the value of that land enormously. The developer — which has successfully delivered large projects in cities including Belgrade, Rabat, Sharjah and Manama — decided to invest USD 12 billion from its own and its partners' funds after studying the Maldives' legal framework, market and geography. Such companies make decisions based purely on business profit and economic calculations, the report notes, meaning those calculations add up. It is evidence, the report argues, that the true value of the reclaimed land was neither weighed nor used by previous governments. A 99-YEAR LEASE IS AN INTERNATIONAL PRINCIPLE Some arguments against the project stem from confusion between "leasehold" and "freehold", the report says. Ras Malé land is not being sold. It is being released on a 99-year lease. That is the common principle applied in Hong Kong, Singapore, much of London and also Dubai for land development. When the term expires, the land will not become the property of foreign parties; a decision will then be taken by the Maldivian government of the day, as the true owner of the land. The report draws a parallel with the Maldives' resorts. For the past 50 years the country has applied exactly this principle: when a resort is leased, the entire island is handed to a single company for the duration of the agreement. Under the Ras Malé model, however, lease rights will be shared among many thousands of separate units and apartment owners from different countries. No single company will control the whole area, and none of those parties will hold any power beyond living in or renting out an apartment. If concentration of power is the concern, the report argues, the risk under this framework is even smaller than under any resort agreement the Maldives has signed to date. NEW ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE MALDIVES Setting political debate aside, the report says the real economic and social benefits the project will create must be examined. First, the Maldives has never had a complete real estate market in which foreigners can buy homes and live. Tourists come to resorts for short periods. This project will open new avenues within the country's traditional tourism framework — a group that will spend money in the Maldivian market on education, health services, food, insurance, legal advice and every aspect of daily life. Second, a complete environment for wide-area retail business will be established. Although discussed for many years, it was never achieved because of the difficulties of running such a system in a temporary population and a crowded capital island. That will be achieved through a modern city that encompasses all these elements. Third, a long-stay market. A person living and working in Ras Malé is an economic participant entirely different from an ordinary tourist. When the project is completed, the developer expects more than 54,000 jobs to be created. With the Maldives' total working population at 272,320, even half that figure would represent the largest job opportunity ever created directly from outside in the country's tourism sector, the report says. These remain estimates, but the direction of economic growth is clear. WHAT IS THE REAL CONCERN? The real risk in this project is not a direct financial loss to the state, the report argues, because the state takes on no debt and gives no guarantee — leaving the financial burden on the state very small. The real concern lies in implementation. The Maldives has seen many islands handed over for tourism that were left unfinished. The twelve billion dollar agreement is a framework agreement, not buildings. It is not money received immediately, and the work will proceed in stages. The target for starting practical work is early 2027. After the signing with Eagle Hills on 21 September, Housing Minister Muthalib (Ka) and Eagle Hills Chairman Mohamed Alabbar were photographed together. The main task now, the report concludes, is to put in place arrangements to carry out the work according to the schedule set out in the agreement. "Such a big economic opportunity coming to a country is very rare," the report states. "So what must be prioritised today is building a strong, balanced system that can make this project a reality successfully." Amid political debate and ongoing tensions, it adds, the project must not be allowed to become something future generations regret as an opportunity lost to the Maldives. SOURCES: Eagle Hills and Maldivian government agreement announcement (September 21, 2026); World Bank data on GDP and foreign direct investment (Maldives and Sri Lanka); Maldives Bureau of Statistics population and employment sector statistics; HDC agreements (January 2025); Ministry of Tourism and relevant international trade reports.