Improved Medicine Forecasting to Cut Waste and Lower Healthcare Costs

Accurate demand forecasting for medicines could significantly reduce the volume of expired drugs discarded across the Maldives, according to the Managing Director of the State Pharmaceuticals and Medical Supply Corporation (State Pharma). Speaking on PSM’s 'Ahaashey Bunaan' programme, Dr. Shah Mahir revealed that current estimates suggest between 10% and 20% of medicines in the country expire before they can be used. He emphasized that refined forecasting would allow the government to order supplies well in advance, ensuring medications arrive with longer shelf lives and reducing the likelihood of stock expiring in warehouses. To achieve this, Dr. Shah stressed the importance of collaborating closely with healthcare providers. This partnership would enable the state to maintain essential stocks while avoiding the chronic supply shortages that have long plagued the Maldivian health sector. The government recently established State Pharma to centralize the import and distribution of pharmaceuticals. As part of this strategic overhaul, the corporation has begun taking over the operations of 193 pharmacies previously managed by the State Trading Organization (STO). Dr. Shah highlighted the financial implications of these inefficiencies, noting that medicines consume approximately 30% of the national healthcare budget. For a small nation, this represents a substantial expenditure. By curbing wastage and optimizing procurement, the government can lower overall spending and reduce the financial burden on Aasandha, the national health insurance scheme. Beyond waste reduction, the creation of a dedicated state-owned entity allows the government to better regulate medicine prices and decrease reliance on third-party suppliers. Dr. Shah described the establishment of the corporation as a critical step toward resolving systemic supply issues and ensuring a more reliable distribution network for all citizens.